Key developments and trends to follow in the GCC area.
Israel-Hamas conflict:
Efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas will continue over the coming month(s). An agreement on a temporary truce is increasingly likely. However, a roadmap towards a ceasefire remains highly uncertain, as Israel will continue to oppose any deal that envisions a temporary truce leading to a permanent ceasefire.
Qatar will continue to lead negotiations based on the release of hostages held in Gaza in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
Red Sea and Yemen situation:
Sudden changes in the security situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has led to merchant ships diverting their routes to longer ones increasing the shipping prices as wells as cancellations on insurances.
Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement will continue its sporadic attacks against commercial and naval vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden over the coming month. US airstrikes against Houthi offensive assets will continue and, although they will have some impact, but they will ultimately not deter the group’s efforts. If the ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict is not being agreed in February, the Houthi attacks will persist.
UN trade and development body, UNCTAD stated: “Attacks against shipping in the Red Sea by Houthis are devastating for global trade and supply chains. The attacks are not only adding to geopolitical tensions but also raising costs and leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Container ship transits are down 67 per cent compared to a year ago.”
UAE and the ongoing conflicts
- Palestine: Significant humanitarian operation launched by the UAE to support the Palestinian people.
- Yemen: The UAE joined the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen in support for the Hadi Government of Yemen. The UN brokered peace negations are still ongoing and in the case of long term peace agreement; the UAE possibly has its own agenda in this process as well.
- Ukraine: the UAE is committed to continue efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. UAE is also taking significant part on prisoner exchanges in between the warring parties.
Jani Hardén
Area Security Manager
Wärtsilä Middle East and Asia